In December I published two related pieces:
Those articles laid out the purchase logic and one high-value potential exit.
In that window, I bought my full 2025 annual allocation of Virgin miles with a 70% bonus. What follows is the running ledger update, two months in.
December 2025 Purchase
Base Miles | Bonus + MR | Total Miles | Cash / Effective Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
300,000 | 226,800 | 526,800 | $6,034.30 / 1.14¢ |
(Bonus = 210,000; Amex MR converted = 16,800.)
It is now late February 2026, a new calendar year. The 70% bonus has returned. This 70% bonus window runs 25 February to 31 March 2026.
The question now is whether I repeat this allocation.
Before answering that, here is what has happened since the last purchase.
Virgin Usage in My Household
Virgin has repeatedly absorbed our transferable currencies at realised values above 1.5¢.
I was comfortable buying because we have repeated, ongoing use cases that historically clear my hurdle rate. Increasing balances increases exposure. The decision only makes sense if exits remain reliable over my holding period.
This is not just a valuation argument. It is about replacing cash flights we would otherwise have purchased.
When I benchmark cash, I use the cheapest realistically acceptable equivalent on the same dates. I do not use the exact flight if a materially cheaper option existed that I would realistically have taken.
Redemptions to Date
Route | Pax | Points Used | Cash Avoided = (Benchmark − Paid) |
|---|---|---|---|
LHR → MIA | 2 | 25,000 | $435 = ($1,096 − $661) |
MIA → LHR | 2 | 15,000 | $881 = ($1,102 − $221) |
LAS → LHR | 3 | 103,500 | $1,487 = ($1,823 − $336) |
Total | 143,500 | $2,803 |
143,500 points have displaced $2,803 of cash spend, an average realised value of ~1.95¢ per mile.
No business class. Just economy award tickets replacing real spend.
The Ledger (Running Recovery)
Treating the December purchase as upfront capital that is repaid over time through avoided cash spend:
Event | Points Used | Cash Avoided | Running Net Cash Position |
|---|---|---|---|
Points purchased (Dec 2025) | +526,800 | ($6,034.30) | |
LHR–MIA | −25,000 | +$435 | ($5,599.30) |
MIA–LHR | −15,000 | +$881 | ($4,718.30) |
LAS–LHR | −103,500 | +$1,487 | ($3,231.30) |
Remaining balance | 383,300 | ($3,231.30) |
In two months:
~46% of the original capital outlay has been recovered
~27% of the miles have been used
That leaves 383,300 miles held against $3,231 of unrecovered capital.
At a 1.14¢ acquisition cost, break-even on the remaining inventory is ~0.84¢.
The 2026 Reload Question
If I repeat the full allocation under current terms:
Base Miles | Bonus + MR | Total Miles | Cash / Effective Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
300,000 | 222,212 | 522,212 | ~$6,106 / ~1.17¢ |
If added to the current remaining balance:
Position | Miles Held | Unrecovered Capital |
|---|---|---|
Current balance | 383,300 | $3,231 |
New allocation | 522,212 | +$6,106 |
Combined total | ~905,512 | ~$9,337 |
The price per mile barely changes, but the concentration changes materially.
There is no urgency to decide today. The first block continues to pay down, and the 70% window runs through March 31.