Two hotel stays around the Calala trip were booked on points.
Moxy Miami Wynwood
Crowne Plaza Managua
Two Amex Offers have shown up:
Marriott: $150 back on $375
IHG: $50 back on $250
The question now is deceptively simple:
Does switching to cash actually reduce what I’m paying for the night?
Valuation rule
I’m a fan of the team, and of many of the methods used, over at Frequent Miler. I use Frequent Miler’s RRV (“Reasonable Redemption Value”) as a starting point, with one firm constraint:
If I can reliably buy points at or below that level, as is routine with IHG during bonus sales, I cap the valuation there. Current sales are sometimes higher, for example ~0.56 cpp, but over time I’ve been able to access ~0.5 cpp consistently enough to treat that as my replacement cost.
So, for my usage:
Marriott: 0.77 cpp ( = FM’s RRV )
IHG: 0.50 cpp ( < FM’s RRV )
Original bookings (were they rational?)
Before changing anything, here’s the starting point:
Program | Points Used | Cash Alternative | Booked cpp |
|---|---|---|---|
Marriott | 23,000 pts | $240 | 1.04 cpp |
IHG | 18,000 pts (net) | $134 | 0.74 cpp |
Both bookings cleared their valuation hurdles comfortably.
Nothing here needed fixing.
What these nights actually cost me
Once you apply the valuation rule, the cost is no longer abstract:
Program | Points Used | Valuation | Implied Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
Marriott | 23,000 pts | 0.77 cpp | $177 |
IHG | 18,000 pts (net) | 0.50 cpp | $90 |
That’s the baseline.
I’m not “using points.” I’m spending:
$177 in Marriott value
$90 in IHG value
The Marriott offer
The Moxy is $240 for a cancellable rate, which is the right comparison to a points booking.
The offer is $150 back on $375. I’m already spending $240, so I would need another $135 to trigger it.
That’s the trade:
Spend: $135 more
Receive $150 back
I also have two more US trips before the deadline, so that remaining spend is real.
The offer doesn’t stand alone. The cost of the stay changes as well. Compare the cost under the two paths:
Points (23k): $177
Cash: $240
At my points valuation, I’m paying $63 more in cash to unlock that rebate.
NET: Pay $63 more to access a $150 rebate, triggered by $135 of additional spend.
The net result is spending $135 more for an $87 rebate.
(Paying cash also earns base plus Platinum bonus points, though I can’t layer a Marriott co-branded card because the offer is on the Amex Platinum.)
Given that the $135 displaces other real spend I would otherwise make, in another upcoming US stay, I’m comfortable giving up the points here to unlock the rebate.
Decision: Switch to cash.
The IHG offer
The Crowne Plaza is $134 cash, or:
20k points originally (=18k after 10% card rebate for IHG Select cardholders)
now repriced to 19k points, if rebooked today (17.1k pts net after 10% back)
At 0.5 cpp, 17.1k points is an $85.50 stay.
Now layer in the offer:
Spend $250 to get $50
I’m already at $134 spend, so need to spend another $116 to unlock the rebate
Now compare:
Points (17.1k): $85.50
Cash: $134
At my points valuation, I’m paying $48.50 more in cash to choose cash over points.
NET: Pay $48.50 more to access a $50 rebate, triggered by $116 of additional spend.
The net result is spending $116 more for a $1.50 rebate.
That doesn’t excite me.
Decision: Rebook lower and stay on points.
What actually changed
These two decisions look similar.
Marriott is driven by a meaningful external subsidy
IHG is not. At this property, an IHG points redemption already produces a relatively high cpp.
Final line
At 0.5 cpp, the Crowne Plaza is an $85.50 stay. Paying $134 in cash to access a $50 rebate does not improve that.